Diabetes risk, 5 years ahead
AUSDRISK calculator (Australian diabetes risk score)
AUSDRISK is a points score from Australia that estimates who is more likely to develop type 2 diabetes over about 5 years. You get a score from 0 to 35, where it falls against the published 12-point cut-off, and the points behind it.
Your answers
The nine factors and points from the published study, in our own words. Nothing you enter leaves this page.
What you will see
Your AUSDRISK score out of 35, whether it reaches the study's 12-point cut-off, how the study group at that score fared, and the points behind it.
Educational only, not medical advice. A risk score, not a diagnosis.
Source
Chen L, Magliano DJ, Balkau B and colleagues, Medical Journal of Australia 2010. Points, waist lines and cut-off as printed in the paper (Box 3 and Box 4).
Validated in
Built in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (AusDiab): 6,060 adults aged 25 or older without diagnosed diabetes, followed for 5 years (362 new cases). Checked in two other Australian groups, the Blue Mountains Eye Study and the North West Adelaide Health Study.
Limits
Predicts new type 2 diabetes over about 5 years; it does not diagnose diabetes or prediabetes. More than 85% of the study group was born in Australia, New Zealand or the United Kingdom, and the points for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and Pacific Islander people were set from small numbers. In the two check groups it separated cases less well in one (area under the curve 0.66) and over- or under-estimated in the other. Only a blood test (A1C or fasting glucose) can show whether you have diabetes now.
AUSDRISK, FINDRISC or the ADA test?
All three use questions you can answer at home. The type 2 diabetes risk test (the score behind the American Diabetes Association test) was built in US survey data to flag adults who may already have undiagnosed diabetes (Bang 2009). The FINDRISC calculator was built in Finland to predict drug-treated type 2 diabetes over 10 years (Lindström 2003). AUSDRISK was built in Australian adults to predict new type 2 diabetes over 5 years, found by blood tests or treatment (Chen 2010). Pick the one built closest to where you live.
The points
| Factor | Answer | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 25 to 34 / 35 to 44 / 45 to 54 / 55 to 64 / 65 or older | 0 / 2 / 4 / 6 / 8 |
| Sex | Female / Male | 0 / 3 |
| Background | Southern European, Asian, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander or Pacific Islander | 2 |
| Parent with diabetes | Yes | 3 |
| Ever told of high blood sugar | Yes | 6 |
| Blood pressure medicine | Yes | 2 |
| Current smoker | Yes | 2 |
| Physically inactive (under 150 minutes a week) | Yes | 2 |
| Waist | Category 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 4 / 7 |
Points from Box 3 of the paper (Chen 2010). The highest possible total is 35. The authors made the points by dividing each factor's weight in their model by the smallest weight, doubling it and rounding (Chen 2010).
The waist lines
| Group | Category 1 (0 points) | Category 2 (4 points) | Category 3 (7 points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Men, Asian or Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander | Under 90 cm | 90 to under 100 cm | 100 cm or more |
| Women, Asian or Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander | Under 80 cm | 80 to under 90 cm | 90 cm or more |
| Men, all other backgrounds | Under 102 cm | 102 to under 110 cm | 110 cm or more |
| Women, all other backgrounds | Under 88 cm | 88 to under 100 cm | 100 cm or more |
Waist categories as defined in the paper (Chen 2010). One inch is 2.54 cm.
What the score means
In the study group, a score of 12 or more was the line that best balanced catching future cases against false alarms: it picked up 74.0% of the people who developed diabetes within 5 years, and 12.7% of the people at or above it went on to develop diabetes (Chen 2010).
| Score | Share of later cases at or above this score | Share of people without diabetes below this score | Developed diabetes in 5 years, at or above this score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 or more | 97.7% | 20.0% | 7.2% |
| 9 or more | 91.3% | 42.8% | 9.2% |
| 12 or more | 74.0% | 67.7% | 12.7% |
| 15 or more | 54.3% | 83.1% | 16.9% |
| 18 or more | 30.9% | 93.6% | 23.3% |
| 21 or more | 15.0% | 98.3% | 35.9% |
Selected rows from Box 4 of the paper (sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value in the AusDiab group) (Chen 2010). They are figures for groups of people, not a forecast for one person.
What to do with your result
A score of 12 or more is a good reason to ask your doctor about an A1C or fasting glucose test. In the US, the US Preventive Services Task Force recommends screening for prediabetes and type 2 diabetes in adults aged 35 to 70 who have overweight or obesity (USPSTF 2021), whatever any risk score says.
See also the FINDRISC calculator, the Canadian CANRISK calculator, the type 2 diabetes risk test, when to get tested for diabetes, prediabetes ranges and next steps, the waist circumference check and, if you have fasting blood test results, the Framingham diabetes risk calculator.
Sources
- Chen L, Magliano DJ, Balkau B, et al. AUSDRISK: an Australian Type 2 Diabetes Risk Assessment Tool based on demographic, lifestyle and simple anthropometric measures. Med J Aust. 2010;192(4):197-202. PMID 20170456. www.mja.com.au/journal/2010/192/4/ausdrisk-australian-type-2-diabetes-risk-assessment-tool-based-demographic
- US Preventive Services Task Force. Screening for Prediabetes and Type 2 Diabetes: Recommendation Statement. JAMA. 2021;326(8):736-743. www.uspreventiveservicestaskforce.org/uspstf/recommendation/screening-for-prediabetes-and-type-2-diabetes
- Bang H, Edwards AM, Bomback AS, et al. Development and validation of a patient self-assessment score for diabetes risk. Ann Intern Med. 2009;151(11):775-783. doi.org/10.7326/0003-4819-151-11-200912010-00005
- Lindström J, Tuomilehto J. The diabetes risk score: a practical tool to predict type 2 diabetes risk. Diabetes Care. 2003;26(3):725-731. PMID 12610029. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12610029/
Written and maintained by the uncovermyrisk.com editorial team. We do not have a medical reviewer; every claim links to its primary source above. Last reviewed: 2026-11-01. Spotted an error? See About.