The PREVENT equations, explained

What PREVENT is

PREVENT stands for Predicting Risk of cardiovascular disease EVENTs. The equations estimate the chance of a first heart attack, stroke or heart failure in adults aged 30 to 79 without known cardiovascular disease (Khan 2024). They give a 10-year risk for everyone in that age range and a 30-year risk for people aged 30 to 59 (Khan 2024).

Who made it, and from what data

The equations were developed by researchers working with the American Heart Association and published in Circulation in 2024 (Khan 2024). They were built from 25 data sets covering about 3.3 million US adults, then tested in about 3.3 million more people from 21 other data sets (Khan 2024). In that outside testing, the equations ranked people by risk well (median C-statistic 0.794 in women and 0.757 in men) and their predicted risks matched observed risks closely (Khan 2024).

What is new compared with the older ASCVD calculator

• Heart failure is included. The main PREVENT outcome is total cardiovascular disease: atherosclerotic disease (heart attack and stroke) plus heart failure (Khan 2024).
• Kidney function counts. eGFR is a required input (Khan 2024).
• No race variable. The models are sex-specific and race-free (Khan 2024).
• It accounts for other causes of death. The models are adjusted for the competing risk of dying from something other than cardiovascular disease (Khan 2024).
• It starts at age 30, so younger adults can see a long-term view (Khan 2024).

For a side-by-side table and why the two give different numbers, see PREVENT vs ASCVD.

The 2025 AHA/ACC high blood pressure guideline now uses PREVENT for risk estimates, including a 10-year total cardiovascular risk of 7.5% or more as one reason to start blood pressure medicine in stage 1 high blood pressure (AHA/ACC 2025).

Which version our calculator uses

We use the base model for total cardiovascular disease. Inputs: sex, age, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, eGFR, diabetes, current smoking, and whether you take blood pressure medicine or a statin (Khan 2024). The paper also publishes versions that add urine albumin, HbA1c or a social deprivation index; we leave those out so the tool works with a standard checkup.

Our coefficients (the weights in the equation) come from the open-source preventr package, which implements the published equations (preventr). Our code reproduces preventr's published test results exactly (to 3 decimals), and we list those tests on our method page. If you only have a creatinine result, our helper estimates eGFR with the race-free CKD-EPI 2021 equation (Inker 2021).

Limits

• Not for people who already have heart disease, a stroke or heart failure.
• Not for people under 30 or over 79; 30-year estimates stop at 59.
• It does not include family history, lipoprotein(a), a coronary calcium score, pregnancy history or other risk enhancers that clinicians may also weigh.
• It describes groups. Two people with the same estimate can have very different outcomes.

Try the heart risk calculator.