Peruvian Diabetes Risk Score

The points

Points from Table 2 of the paper. The authors kept the three factors that stayed linked to undiagnosed diabetes in their statistical model and turned each weight into a whole number, giving a score from 0 to 4 (Bernabe-Ortiz 2016). Family history meant diabetes in a first-degree relative. The same waist cut points are used for women and men (Bernabe-Ortiz 2016). Sex, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, BMI and high blood pressure were tested and left out (Bernabe-Ortiz 2016). One inch is 2.54 cm.

Example: a 58-year-old with a waist of 92 cm and no family history scores 1 (age) + 1 (waist) = 2, at the cut point.

What the score means

The authors chose 2 as the cut point because it best balanced finding people with diabetes against flagging people without it. In the survey the score was built from, a score of 2 or more picked up 70% of adults with undiagnosed diabetes, and 66% of those without diabetes scored under 2. In the separate CRONICAS check group the figures were 70% and 59% (Bernabe-Ortiz 2016). Because undiagnosed diabetes was uncommon (2.0% and 2.9% of adults in the two studies), only about 4% to 5% of people scoring 2 or more turned out to have it (Bernabe-Ortiz 2016).

A lower cut point of 1 found 94% of cases in the building survey but flagged about 70% of all adults (Bernabe-Ortiz 2016). In the CRONICAS follow-up, the score also picked up about 69% of people who went on to develop diabetes over about 2.5 years (area under the curve 0.66) (Bernabe-Ortiz 2016).

Peruvian score, FINDRISC or the US test?

All of these ask about age, body size and family history, but they were built in different places. The Peruvian score is the shortest: three questions, with waist instead of BMI, built in Peru's coast, highlands and jungle (Bernabe-Ortiz 2016). The FINDRISC calculator comes from Finland and predicts diabetes over 10 years (Lindström 2003), the US type 2 diabetes risk test was built in US survey data (Bang 2009), and the Japanese diabetes risk score predicts diabetes over 3 years in Japanese workers (Nanri 2015). In the Peruvian check group, the Peruvian score did as well as or better than the six other published scores the authors compared it with, while asking fewer questions (Bernabe-Ortiz 2016). Pick the one built closest to where you live and who you are.

What to do with your result

A score of 2 or more is a reason to ask your doctor about a blood sugar test such as an A1C, a fasting glucose or a glucose tolerance test. A score under 2 does not rule diabetes out. In the US, the US Preventive Services Task Force recommends screening for prediabetes and type 2 diabetes in adults aged 35 to 70 who have overweight or obesity (USPSTF 2021), whatever any risk score says.

See also the Japanese diabetes risk score, the Korean diabetes risk score, the Chinese Diabetes Risk Score, the Indian Diabetes Risk Score, the FINDRISC calculator, the type 2 diabetes risk test, when to get tested for diabetes, prediabetes ranges and next steps and the waist circumference check.