Dementia risk, 20 years ahead
CAIDE dementia risk score
The CAIDE score estimates the chance of developing dementia over the next 20 years from 7 factors measured in midlife, such as blood pressure, weight and cholesterol. It is not a test for dementia now and says nothing about your memory today.
Your midlife numbers
For ages 39 to 64, the ages of the study the score was built in. Nothing you enter leaves this page.
Count full years of schooling and study. For example, finishing US high school is about 12 years.
What you will see
Your CAIDE score out of 15, the share of people with that score who developed dementia within 20 years in the original study, and the points behind it.
Educational only, not medical advice. A long-term risk estimate, not a memory test or a diagnosis.
Source
Kivipelto M et al., Lancet Neurology 2006 (the original CAIDE score; risk by score band from its abstract). The full 2006 paper is not open access, so the points are read from the original table as reprinted in two open papers that cite it: Pietilä E et al. 2025 (Table A1) and Farkas K et al. 2026 (Table 1). The two reprints match point for point.
Validated in
Built in the Finnish CAIDE study: 1,409 people aged 39 to 64 at a midlife visit, re-examined about 20 years later; 4% developed dementia. Later checked in a national Finnish sample of adults over 30 followed for 19 years (Pietilä 2025).
Limits
Estimates dementia risk 20 years ahead from midlife factors. It is not a test for dementia now, cannot rule dementia in or out, and is not meant for people already having memory or thinking problems. Built in Finnish adults, so it may fit other countries and groups less well. Only for ages 39 to 64.
What the score is, and what it is not
The CAIDE score was made to predict the chance of late-life dementia in people of middle age from their risk profile (Kivipelto 2006). It estimates 20-year dementia risk from midlife factors; it is not a test for dementia now. If you, your family or your clinician have noticed changes in memory, language or thinking, that calls for a check-up, not a risk score: looking into symptoms is not screening (USPSTF 2020). For adults 65 and older without symptoms, the US Preventive Services Task Force found the evidence insufficient to weigh the benefits and harms of screening for cognitive impairment (an I statement) (USPSTF 2020); see the memory screening check.
The points come from the original 2006 study (Kivipelto 2006), read from the table as reprinted by Pietilä 2025 (Pietilä 2025) and Farkas 2026 (Farkas 2026).
The points
| Factor | Answer | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Age | Under 47 / 47 to 53 / over 53 | 0 / 3 / 4 |
| Education | 10 years or more / 7 to 9 years / 0 to 6 years | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Sex | Female / Male | 0 / 1 |
| Systolic blood pressure | 140 mmHg or lower / over 140 mmHg | 0 / 2 |
| BMI | 30 or lower / over 30 | 0 / 2 |
| Total cholesterol | 6.5 mmol/L (about 251 mg/dL) or lower / higher | 0 / 2 |
| Physical activity | Active / Inactive | 0 / 1 |
Points from the original CAIDE table as reprinted in Pietilä 2025 (Pietilä 2025) and Farkas 2026 (Farkas 2026); the highest total is 15 (Kivipelto 2006). Inactive means leisure-time exercise less than twice a week, for at least 30 minutes and causing at least mild breathlessness and sweating, as Pietilä 2025 defines it (Pietilä 2025). We convert mg/dL to mmol/L by dividing by 38.67, as on our LDL calculator.
Risk by score
| Score | Developed dementia within 20 years in the original study |
|---|---|
| 0 to 5 | 1.0% |
| 6 to 7 | 1.9% |
| 8 to 9 | 4.2% |
| 10 to 11 | 7.4% |
| 12 to 15 | 16.4% |
Figures as printed in the 2006 abstract (Kivipelto 2006). They are averages for groups of people in that Finnish study, not a forecast for one person. The score separated people who did and did not develop dementia fairly well (area under the curve 0.77). With 9 points or more as the line, it picked up 77% of later cases, and 98% of people below that line did not develop dementia (Kivipelto 2006).
Checked in a newer Finnish group
In a national sample of 5,806 Finnish adults over 30 followed for 19 years, the CAIDE score again predicted dementia well (area under the curve 0.78) (Pietilä 2025). In that study, 1.6% of people in the lowest score group and 26.3% in the highest developed dementia (Pietilä 2025). Those figures come from a different group that also included older adults, so use the 2006 bands above for the score itself.
What to do with your result
Several points in the score come from things a doctor can check: in the original study, hypertension, high cholesterol and obesity in midlife predicted later dementia, along with older age and fewer years of education (Kivipelto 2006). The authors suggested the score could help find people who might benefit from lifestyle advice and treatment (Kivipelto 2006). A higher score is a reason to talk with your doctor about your blood pressure, cholesterol and weight.
See also the high blood pressure screening check, the BMI calculator, the cholesterol levels by age guide and the memory screening check for adults 65 and older.
Sources
- Kivipelto M, Ngandu T, Laatikainen T, Winblad B, Soininen H, Tuomilehto J. Risk score for the prediction of dementia risk in 20 years among middle aged people: a longitudinal, population-based study. Lancet Neurol. 2006;5(9):735-741. PMID 16914401. (Origin of the CAIDE score; we read the abstract.) pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16914401/
- Pietilä E, Löyttyniemi E, Koskinen S, et al. Enhancing dementia prediction: A 19-year validation of the CAIDE risk score with insulin resistance and APOE ε4 integration in a population-based cohort. J Prev Alzheimers Dis. 2025;12(2):100034. (Reprints the original CAIDE points in Table A1.) pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12184024/
- Farkas K, Lazar T, Becske M, et al. The CAIDE dementia risk score indicates elevated cognitive risk in late adulthood: a structural and functional neuroimaging study. GeroScience. 2026;48(1). doi:10.1007/s11357-025-01766-8. (Reprints the original CAIDE points in Table 1.) pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12972359/
- US Preventive Services Task Force. Screening for Cognitive Impairment in Older Adults: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement. JAMA. 2020;323(8):757-763. www.uspreventiveservicestaskforce.org/uspstf/recommendation/cognitive-impairment-in-older-adults-screening
Written and maintained by the uncovermyrisk.com editorial team. We do not have a medical reviewer; every claim links to its primary source above. Last reviewed: 2026-11-01. Spotted an error? See About.