Blood pressure risk check
Hypertension risk calculator
If your blood pressure is not high yet, this calculator estimates your chance of developing high blood pressure in the next 1, 2 and 4 years. It uses a risk score from the Framingham Heart Study, built from age, sex, blood pressure, BMI, smoking and whether your parents had high blood pressure.
Your numbers
Nothing you enter leaves this page. For adults 20 to 69 without diabetes whose blood pressure is below 140/90 mm Hg and who do not take blood pressure medicine.
What you will see
Your estimated chance of developing high blood pressure in 1, 2 and 4 years, and the study's risk group for the 4-year number.
Educational only, not medical advice. This is an estimate for groups of people like you, not a diagnosis.
Source
Parikh NI et al., Ann Intern Med 2008 (the Framingham hypertension risk score); coefficients and worked example from the Framingham Heart Study's page and spreadsheet for this paper.
Validated in
1,717 white adults aged 20 to 69 in the Framingham Heart Study, Massachusetts, without high blood pressure or diabetes, with both parents in the study's original cohort (mean age 42, 54% women), who contributed 5,814 exams.
Limits
Not tested in an independent cohort in the paper. May not apply to people of other races or ethnic groups or to people with diabetes. Uses single blood pressure readings. Does not apply if you already have high blood pressure or take blood pressure medicine.
What the score predicts
The score gives the chance of new high blood pressure over the next 1, 2 or 4 years in adults who do not have it yet (Parikh 2008). In the study, high blood pressure meant a systolic pressure above 140 mm Hg, a diastolic pressure above 90 mm Hg, or taking blood pressure medicine (Framingham Heart Study). Today some organizations draw the line lower, at 130/80 mm Hg (USPSTF 2021), so the score may count fewer people as having high blood pressure than a newer definition would.
What goes into it
The researchers followed 1,717 people without high blood pressure, and 796 of them developed it during follow-up (median 3.8 years). Age, sex, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, parental high blood pressure and smoking each predicted it (Parikh 2008). In the published model, women had a somewhat higher risk than men at the same levels, and risk went up with each parent who had high blood pressure (Framingham Heart Study).
The formula is a Weibull model. The risk after t years is 1 minus exp(-exp((ln(t) minus (22.94954 plus the sum of each coefficient times your value)) ÷ 0.87692)) (Framingham Heart Study). The coefficients are:
| Factor | Coefficient |
|---|---|
| Age, per year | -0.15641 |
| Female sex (women 1, men 0) | -0.20293 |
| Systolic blood pressure, per mm Hg | -0.05933 |
| Diastolic blood pressure, per mm Hg | -0.12847 |
| Current smoking | -0.19073 |
| Parental high blood pressure, per parent (0, 1 or 2) | -0.16612 |
| BMI, per kg/m² | -0.03388 |
| Age times diastolic blood pressure | 0.00162 |
A negative coefficient here means a higher risk, because the model predicts the time until high blood pressure starts. The calculator uses the full-precision numbers from the Framingham Heart Study spreadsheet and reproduces its worked example: a 56-year-old woman with 130/70 mm Hg, BMI 24.1, no smoking and no parental high blood pressure has a 4-year risk of 17.5% (Framingham Heart Study).
The risk groups
The study grouped 4-year risk as low (under 5%), medium (5% to 10%) and high (over 10%). Among the participants, 34% were low, 19% medium and 47% high. The score separated people who did and did not develop high blood pressure well (c-statistic 0.788), and the authors report that its calibration was very good (Parikh 2008).
Limits
- The authors say the score may not apply to people who are not white or who have diabetes, and that it had not been tested in a separate group of people when published (Parikh 2008).
- It is based on single measurements of blood pressure and other factors (Parikh 2008). Blood pressure varies from reading to reading, so a different day can give a different result.
- It does not diagnose high blood pressure. That takes high readings repeated over time and in different settings (USPSTF 2021).
What to do with the number
Whatever your result, the USPSTF recommends blood pressure screening for all adults 18 and older, every year from age 40 or if you are at increased risk, and every 3 to 5 years for adults 18 to 39 who are not (USPSTF 2021). Adults at increased risk include people with high-normal blood pressure and people who are overweight or obese (USPSTF 2021). See high blood pressure screening and blood pressure ranges.
For your chance of a heart attack or stroke rather than high blood pressure, use the PREVENT heart risk calculator or the Framingham risk calculator. For the chance of developing atrial fibrillation, see the atrial fibrillation risk calculator. To work out your BMI first, use the BMI calculator.
Sources
- Parikh NI, Pencina MJ, Wang TJ, Benjamin EJ, Lanier KJ, Levy D, D'Agostino RB Sr, Kannel WB, Vasan RS. A risk score for predicting near-term incidence of hypertension: the Framingham Heart Study. Ann Intern Med. 2008;148(2):102-110. PMID 18195335. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18195335/
- Framingham Heart Study. Hypertension: risk function, Weibull regression coefficients and spreadsheet calculator for Parikh et al. 2008. We read the coefficients and the worked example here, as the paper itself is not open access. www.framinghamheartstudy.org/fhs-risk-functions/hypertension/
- US Preventive Services Task Force. Screening for Hypertension in Adults: US Preventive Services Task Force Reaffirmation Recommendation Statement. JAMA. 2021;325(16):1650-1656. www.uspreventiveservicestaskforce.org/uspstf/recommendation/hypertension-in-adults-screening
Written and maintained by the uncovermyrisk.com editorial team. We do not have a medical reviewer; every claim links to its primary source above. Last reviewed: 2026-11-01. Spotted an error? See About.