Heart rhythm risk check
Atrial fibrillation risk calculator
If you do not have atrial fibrillation (AFib), this calculator estimates your chance of developing it in the next 10 years. It uses the Framingham Heart Study AF risk score, built from age, sex, BMI, blood pressure, blood pressure treatment, the PR interval on an ECG, a heart murmur and heart failure.
Your numbers
Nothing you enter leaves this page. For adults 45 to 95 who do not have atrial fibrillation. The PR interval comes from an ECG, and a significant murmur is found when a clinician listens to your heart, so you may need your records.
What you will see
Your estimated chance of developing atrial fibrillation in 10 years, from the full equation, and your total on the paper's point sheet.
Educational only, not medical advice. This is an estimate for groups of people like you, not a diagnosis.
Source
Schnabel RB et al., Lancet 2009 (the Framingham AF risk score); coefficients, sample means and worked example from the Framingham Heart Study's page and spreadsheet for this paper.
Validated in
4,764 adults aged 45 to 95 in the Framingham Heart Study original and Offspring cohorts, Massachusetts, without AF at the start (mean age 60.9, 55% women), who contributed 8,044 exams; 457 developed AF within 10 years.
Limits
Built in a white, middle-aged to older cohort; the authors say it must be validated, and may need recalibrating, in other races and ethnic groups and in younger adults. Uses one clinic blood pressure reading. Needs an ECG (PR interval) and a clinician's exam (murmur). Does not apply if you already have AF.
What the score predicts
The score gives the chance of a first episode of atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter over the next 10 years in people who do not have it (Schnabel 2009). In the study, AF was found on an ECG from a Framingham visit, an outside doctor or hospital record, or a Holter monitor (Schnabel 2009). The authors note that some AF without symptoms may have been missed (Schnabel 2009).
What goes into it
Age, sex, a significant heart murmur, heart failure, systolic blood pressure, blood pressure treatment, body mass index and the PR interval on the ECG each predicted AF (Schnabel 2009). A significant murmur meant a systolic murmur of grade 3 out of 6 or louder, or any diastolic murmur, heard by the study physician (Schnabel 2009).
The formula is a Cox model. The 10-year risk is 1 minus 0.96337 raised to the power exp(the sum of each coefficient times your value, minus 10.78553), where 10.78553 is the same sum at the study's average values (Framingham Heart Study). The coefficients are:
| Factor | Coefficient |
|---|---|
| Age, per year | 0.15052 |
| Age squared | -0.00038 |
| Male sex (men 1, women 0) | 1.99406 |
| BMI, per kg/m² | 0.01930 |
| Systolic blood pressure, per mm Hg | 0.00615 |
| Treatment for high blood pressure | 0.42410 |
| PR interval, per 10 ms | 0.07065 |
| Significant murmur | 3.79586 |
| Heart failure | 9.42833 |
| Male sex times age squared | -0.00028 |
| Age times significant murmur | -0.04238 |
| Age times heart failure | -0.12307 |
The interaction terms mean a murmur or heart failure adds more risk at younger ages than at older ages. The Framingham Heart Study spreadsheet enters the PR interval in tens of milliseconds (160 ms counts as 16). The calculator uses these numbers and reproduces the spreadsheet's worked example: a 70-year-old man with BMI 23.0, systolic pressure 130 mm Hg, no blood pressure treatment, PR interval 160 ms, no murmur and no heart failure has a 10-year risk of 8.6% (Framingham Heart Study).
The point sheet
The paper also gives a simpler point sheet (Schnabel 2009) (Framingham Heart Study). The authors say the points approximate the equation and that a category with 0 points does not mean a safe threshold (Schnabel 2009).
| Age | Points, women | Points, men |
|---|---|---|
| 45 to 49 | -3 | 1 |
| 50 to 54 | -2 | 2 |
| 55 to 59 | 0 | 3 |
| 60 to 64 | 1 | 4 |
| 65 to 69 | 3 | 5 |
| 70 to 74 | 4 | 6 |
| 75 to 79 | 6 | 7 |
| 80 to 84 | 7 | 7 |
| 85 or older | 8 | 8 |
Add 1 point each for systolic pressure of 160 mm Hg or higher, blood pressure treatment and a BMI of 30 or higher. Add 1 point for a PR interval of 160 to 199 ms, or 2 points for 200 ms or longer. A significant murmur adds 5 points at ages 45 to 54, 4 at 55 to 64, 2 at 65 to 74, 1 at 75 to 84 and 0 from 85. Heart failure adds 10 points at ages 45 to 54, 6 at 55 to 64, 2 at 65 to 74 and 0 from 75 (Framingham Heart Study).
| Total points | 0 or less | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 or more |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year risk | 1% or less | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 22% | over 30% |
How well it worked
The score separated people who did and did not develop AF fairly well (C statistic 0.78), and predicted risk by tenth matched observed risk closely (Schnabel 2009). Risk rose steeply with age: a 10-year risk above 15% was seen in 1.0% of participants younger than 65 and in 26.9% of those 65 or older (Schnabel 2009). Adding heart ultrasound measures improved it only a little (Schnabel 2009).
Limits
- The authors describe the cohort as white and middle-aged to elderly, say the score may not apply to younger adults, and say it must be validated, and possibly recalibrated, in other races and ethnic groups (Schnabel 2009).
- AF has become more common over time, so the score may need recalibrating if risk factors or AF rates change (Schnabel 2009).
- It uses a blood pressure reading from a single clinic visit (Schnabel 2009). A different day can give a different result.
- It does not diagnose AF and it is not a screening test. AF often causes no symptoms (NHLBI), and only an ECG can show it.
What to do with the number
For adults 50 and older without symptoms, the USPSTF found the evidence insufficient to recommend for or against screening for AF (an I statement) (USPSTF 2022). Its check is on the atrial fibrillation screening check. Symptoms of AF can include a fluttering, pounding or too-fast heartbeat, trouble breathing, chest pain, dizziness or fainting, and tiredness (NHLBI); tell your clinician if you have them.
General safety advice (not part of the source recommendations): chest pain, fainting or sudden trouble breathing needs urgent care. Call 911.
AF raises the risk of stroke. If you already have AF, see the stroke risk check and its CHA2DS2-VASc guide. For your chance of a heart attack, stroke or heart failure, use the PREVENT heart risk calculator. For the chance of developing high blood pressure, one of the factors in this score, see the hypertension risk calculator, and for heart failure in people with high blood pressure, coronary heart disease or valve disease, the heart failure risk calculator.
Sources
- Schnabel RB, Sullivan LM, Levy D, Pencina MJ, Massaro JM, D'Agostino RB Sr, Newton-Cheh C, Yamamoto JF, Magnani JW, Tadros TM, Kannel WB, Wang TJ, Ellinor PT, Wolf PA, Vasan RS, Benjamin EJ. Development of a risk score for atrial fibrillation (Framingham Heart Study): a community-based cohort study. Lancet. 2009;373(9665):739-745. PMID 19249635. Author manuscript PMC2764235. pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2764235/
- Framingham Heart Study. Atrial Fibrillation (10-year risk): point score sheet, Cox regression coefficients, baseline survival and spreadsheet calculator for Schnabel et al. 2009. We read the coefficients, sample means and worked example here (the paper puts them in its supplement). www.framinghamheartstudy.org/fhs-risk-functions/atrial-fibrillation-10-year-risk/
- US Preventive Services Task Force. Screening for Atrial Fibrillation: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement. JAMA. 2022;327(4):360. www.uspreventiveservicestaskforce.org/uspstf/recommendation/atrial-fibrillation-screening
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. Atrial Fibrillation: Symptoms. Last updated November 30, 2022. www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/atrial-fibrillation/symptoms
Written and maintained by the uncovermyrisk.com editorial team. We do not have a medical reviewer; every claim links to its primary source above. Last reviewed: 2026-11-01. Spotted an error? See About.