PAD risk check
Peripheral artery disease risk calculator
Estimate your chance of developing intermittent claudication, the walking leg pain that is the most common symptom of peripheral artery disease (PAD), in the next 4 years. It uses the Framingham Heart Study claudication risk profile, built from age, sex, cholesterol, blood pressure, smoking, diabetes and coronary heart disease.
Your numbers
Nothing you enter leaves this page. For adults 45 to 84 who do not already have leg pain when walking.
What you will see
Your estimated chance of developing intermittent claudication in the next 4 years, from the Framingham equation, with the matching point total.
Educational only, not medical advice. This is an estimate for groups of people like you, not a diagnosis.
Source
Murabito JM et al., Circulation 1997 (the Framingham intermittent claudication risk profile); coefficients and point chart from the Framingham Heart Study's page for this paper.
Validated in
The original Framingham Heart Study cohort, Massachusetts, followed for 38 years, with 381 men and women who developed intermittent claudication. The point chart covers ages 45 to 84.
Limits
Predicts claudication, the symptom, not PAD found only on tests. Built in one US community, in a study published in 1997. Uses older (JNC-V) blood pressure stages. Not for people who already have claudication.
What the score predicts
Intermittent claudication is pain, aching, heaviness or cramping in the legs that comes on when walking or climbing stairs and goes away after rest. It is the most common symptom of PAD (NHLBI). The profile gives the chance of claudication starting in the next 4 years, for people who do not have it yet (Framingham Heart Study).
The authors used 38 years of follow-up of the original Framingham cohort, in which 381 men and women developed claudication (Murabito 1997). Age, sex, serum cholesterol, high blood pressure, cigarette smoking, diabetes and coronary heart disease were linked to higher risk and went into the profile (Murabito 1997). They built it so physicians could pick out people at high risk during a routine office visit and teach them about the risk factors they can change, especially smoking and blood pressure (Murabito 1997).
How it is calculated
The model is a pooled logistic regression over 4-year periods (Murabito 1997) (Framingham Heart Study). The 4-year risk is 1 divided by (1 plus exp(minus x)), where x is the intercept plus each coefficient times your value. The coefficients the Framingham Heart Study prints are (Framingham Heart Study):
| Factor | Coefficient |
|---|---|
| Intercept | -8.9152 |
| Male sex | 0.5033 |
| Age, per year | 0.0372 |
| Blood pressure: normal | 0.0000 |
| Blood pressure: high normal | 0.2621 |
| Blood pressure: stage 1 hypertension | 0.4067 |
| Blood pressure: stage 2 or higher | 0.7977 |
| Diabetes | 0.9503 |
| Cigarettes, per cigarette a day | 0.0314 |
| Total cholesterol, per mg/dL | 0.0048 |
| Coronary heart disease | 0.9939 |
The same page prints a point chart: up to 7 points for age, 3 for male sex, up to 4 each for cholesterol, blood pressure and cigarettes a day, and 5 each for diabetes and coronary heart disease. A total under 10 points means under 1% in 4 years, 20 points means 6%, and 30 points means 28% (Framingham Heart Study). We show both: the equation as the main number and the point total beside it. Our tests check that the two agree on worked examples.
The blood pressure stages
The claudication page names the stages (normal, high normal, stage 1, stage 2 or higher) but does not print their cut points (Framingham Heart Study). The Framingham Heart Study's 1998 coronary score uses the JNC-V blood pressure categories and prints their cut points: high normal is 130 to 139 systolic or 85 to 89 diastolic, stage 1 is 140 to 159 or 90 to 99, and stage 2 or higher is 160 or more or 100 or more, taking the higher stage when the two numbers disagree (Framingham Heart Study). We use those. They are older than today's US categories, where 130 to 139 already counts as stage 1 hypertension, so see blood pressure ranges for the current ones.
How this differs from PAD screening
This calculator estimates the chance of a future symptom. It does not check whether you have PAD now. That needs a test such as the ankle-brachial index (ABI), and about 1 in 5 people with PAD have no symptoms at all (NHLBI). For adults without symptoms, the US Preventive Services Task Force found the evidence insufficient to weigh the benefits and harms of ABI screening (an I statement) (USPSTF 2018); the PAD screening check explains what that means. If you already have test pressures, the ABI calculator works out the ratio and its guideline category (ACC/AHA 2024).
Limits
- The chart covers ages 45 to 84 (Framingham Heart Study). It was built in one community, Framingham, Massachusetts, from 38 years of follow-up of the original cohort, and published in 1997 (Murabito 1997). It may fit other groups less well.
- It predicts claudication only. Many people with PAD have no typical symptoms (NHLBI), so a low number does not rule PAD out.
- It uses single readings of blood pressure and cholesterol. A different day can give a different result.
- It does not diagnose PAD. Only your clinician, with tests such as the ABI, can tell you whether you have it.
What to do with the number
Bring the result to your clinician. Everyone with PAD shares a high risk of cardiovascular disease, and without treatment PAD may cause sores, infections and even loss of a limb (NHLBI). Tell your clinician about leg pain when walking, a foot that feels colder than the other, or sores on the toes, feet or legs that heal slowly (NHLBI). For help with the strongest factor you can change, see the quit smoking check.
General safety advice (not part of the source recommendations): a leg or foot that suddenly turns cold, pale and painful, or chest pain, needs urgent care. Call 911.
For your chance of a first heart attack, stroke or heart failure, see the PREVENT heart risk calculator. Related Framingham tools: the Framingham risk calculator, the hypertension risk calculator and the heart failure risk calculator.
Sources
- Murabito JM, D'Agostino RB, Silbershatz H, Wilson WF. Intermittent claudication: a risk profile from the Framingham Heart Study. Circulation. 1997;96(1):44-49. PMID 9236415. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9236415/
- Framingham Heart Study. Intermittent Claudication: point chart for the 4-year probability at ages 45 to 84 and logistic regression coefficients for Murabito et al. 1997. We read the points and coefficients here, as the paper itself is not open to read. www.framinghamheartstudy.org/fhs-risk-functions/intermittent-claudication/
- Framingham Heart Study. Coronary Heart Disease (10-year risk), Wilson PWF et al. Circulation 1998;97:1837-1847: lists JNC-V blood pressure categories as a predictor and prints their systolic and diastolic cut points. www.framinghamheartstudy.org/fhs-risk-functions/coronary-heart-disease-10-year-risk/
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. Peripheral Artery Disease: Symptoms. Last updated March 24, 2022. www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/peripheral-artery-disease/symptoms
- US Preventive Services Task Force. Screening for Peripheral Artery Disease and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment With the Ankle-Brachial Index: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement. JAMA. 2018;320(2):177-183. www.uspreventiveservicestaskforce.org/uspstf/recommendation/peripheral-artery-disease-in-adults-screening-with-the-ankle-brachial-index
- Gornik HL, Aronow HD, Goodney PP, et al. 2024 ACC/AHA/AACVPR/APMA/ABC/SCAI/SVM/SVN/SVS/SIR/VESS Guideline for the Management of Lower Extremity Peripheral Artery Disease. Circulation. 2024;149(24):e1313-e1410. Section 3.1 and Tables 5 and 6. pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12782132/
Written and maintained by the uncovermyrisk.com editorial team. We do not have a medical reviewer; every claim links to its primary source above. Last reviewed: 2026-11-01. Spotted an error? See About.